On a down market, RIL shares plummet. What should investors do after the fourth-quarter results?

  • May 9, 2022, 12:01 p.m.

The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate's revenue from operations rose 37% to 2.11 lakh crore during the quarter ended March 31, 2022. It has become the first Indian company to have crossed $100 billion in revenue in a year. Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India's most valuable company, reported a 22.5% surge in fourth-quarter profit to 16,203 crore on the back of bumper oil refining margins and steady growth in telecom, digital services, and retail business. Shares of RIL plunged over 2% to 2,564 apiece on the BSE in Monday's opening deals, dragging the Sensex by 800 points.

"The stock should benefit from three areas: accelerated EBITDA growth in the retail business, which garners about 4x higher valuation multiple v/s overall business; Reliance Jio’s steady revenue growth from market share gains, tariff hikes and other wireline/digital avenues; and better refining margin that should translate into 20% EBITDA growth in the standalone business," said brokerage Motilal Oswal.

The brokerage firm has reiterated a Buy rating on Reliance Industries shares with a target price of 2,935 apiece. Motilal Oswal said its higher EV/EBITDA multiples of 38x for RIL's retail (core segment) and 19x for digital services underscore new growth opportunities in the digital space and steady market share gains.

"We raise FY23/24E GRM from USD10/bbl each to USD16/13 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict-related issues and the overall tightness in oil-product markets." We expect petchem earnings to also improve gradually, as cracker rates normalize and new capacity is absorbed. "We built in higher upstream gas prices as well," said another brokerage, Emkay, in a note.

The brokerage has retained its Hold rating/equalweight (EW) stance on RIL shares with a target price of 2,850. Emkay sees adverse commodity/currency, B2C competition, and new business risks as key risks.

Author : Rajdhani Delhi Representative

Rajdhani delhi representative

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