Indian benchmark indices witnessed a smart recovery, gaining more than 2 percent in the week ended March 11, breaking a four-week losing streak amid volatility due to the ongoing geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine. In the last week, the BSE Sensex added 1,216.49 points (2.23 percent) to end at 55,550.3, while the Nifty50 rose 385.15 points (2.37 percent) to end at 16,630.5 levels.
Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities The Nifty has staged a strong rebound from a structural value level of 15,900. This, along with the momentum reversal confirmation, suggests 'buy on dips' strategy should work for the near term. We expect the March series to trade with a positive bias, with initial targets placed at 17,100-17,200. We remain positive on the broader markets with the NBFC and FMCG spaces giving good risk-reward opportunities; – metal stocks remain in the highly volatile zone, making it difficult to define risk levels.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities | The Russia-Ukraine conflict is keeping oil prices and a few other commodities prices volatile and elevated. The increased risk of high energy prices and its impact on macro parameters will likely remain an important factor in shaping market direction in the near term. Amid sustained high inflation, the market will closely monitor announcements at the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled next week.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | This week, the market will focus on the reduction of commodity prices and diplomatic development between Russia and Ukraine. If these global trends turn positive, the performance of the Indian market will be good, or else it may get choppy. The market will also focus on inflation data to be released in India and the US, and the US Fed and the BoE meetings are scheduled for this week.
Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities | The Nifty’s price action shows an interesting setup that forecasts the possibility of a massive move in both directions. However, considering the macroeconomic, behavioural, and sentimental evidence, Nifty can drop towards the 16,000 mark again. The probability of a down move appears more probable, confirmation only below Nifty’s 16,327 mark.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | We are of the view that the index has completed one leg of a pullback rally, but the texture of the market suggests a strong possibility of a range-bound activity in the near future. For traders, 16,400 and 16,300 would be the key support areas, and the 20-day SMA or 16800 would act as an immediate hurdle for the bulls. A close above the same could see the Nifty hit 17,000 or the 200-day SMA. We expect the uptrend formation will continue unless the Nifty slips below 16,300.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | On the weekly time frame, the Nifty formed a bullish AB=CD harmonic pattern, and this pattern does suggest a possibility of a rally to 17,500-odd levels. On the daily time frame, we see an inside candle that had the smallest range in the last several days. This is the contraction of volatility on the shorter time frame. A break out above 16,750 will lead to a Nifty rally towards 17,000 and above that to 17,500. The MACD has moved into a buy mode as the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Buyers are slowly assuming control of the market. The major barrier for the Nifty is at 16,750-16,800. A break above 16,800 will lead the benchmark to 17,000 and above that to 17,500. Support is at 16,200. A break above 16,750 and the Nifty could hit 17,000 before the March 17 weekly expiry.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | After the election results, the equity markets is expected to move on to more important aspects in the near term – the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict, the US Fed rate hikes, elevated crude oil prices, and the RBI’s response to rising inflationary pressures in the economy. We expect markets to stay volatile until the existing headwinds subside. At a P/E of 19x FY23E EPS for the Nifty, valuations look relatively more reasonable.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Along with the ongoing war, the conclusion of the Fed's FOMC March meeting will be the main headliner of the coming week. This Fed meeting is especially important considering the unknowns emerging out of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Market players will be looking for clues from the FOMC's assessment of the inflation risk and how aggressive it is willing to be with interest rate rises. Back home, the domestic inflation rate will be the crucial parameter impacting market sentiments early next week as all eyes will be on the deviation between the actual print and RBI forecasts. Given these significant events, volatility may rise, and investors are recommended to continue cherry-picking resilient stocks while avoiding vulnerable counters.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | This will be a truncated week and participants will first react to the IIP data to be released today. On the same day, CPI Inflation and WPI Inflation are also scheduled to be out. Among the important events, the US Fed policy meeting outcome on March 16 will be closely watched as the majority expects a 25 bps hike. However, their commentary on the quantum of future rate hikes will be critical. Besides, the updates on Russia-Ukraine tension and its impact on crude will remain in focus. We feel participants should continue with a cautious stance until the prevailing geopolitical tensions ease further. Markets are offering opportunities on both sides, but overnight risk and excessive volatility during the day are not easy to handle. The prudent approach is to focus more on risk management aspects. On the index front, a decisive close above 16,800 could help the Nifty inch towards the 17,200 zone. In case of decline, 16,000-16,200 zone would act as a cushion. Participants should focus on metal, IT, pharma, and select energy stocks for long trades while others may continue to trade mixed.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The brief consolidation can continue in the range of 16,400-16,800 post which the index will be set to extend higher. Thus a potential minor degree dip towards 16,450-16,400 can be taken as a fresh buying opportunity. Beyond 16,800, the Nifty is expected to test 17,000 in the short term.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | As far as levels are concerned, 16,750 – 16,800 remains to be a key hurdle and any sustainable move above this would confirm Tuesday’s low as a bottom. On the flipside, 16,450 followed by 16,200 are to be seen as immediate supports. Going ahead, we expect some consolidation in key indices, and a lot of adjustment would continue to happen in individual stocks. For the coming week, in case of index consolidation, one should focus on stock-specific moves, which are likely to continue and can provide excellent trading opportunities.