The market is expected to open on a cautious note as trends in the SGX Nifty indicate a flat opening for the broader index in India on Wednesday with a gain of 19 points.
The BSE Sensex fell 98 points to 53,416, while the Nifty50 declined 28 points to 15,939 and formed a bearish candle on the daily charts with lower high lower low formation.
As per the pivot charts, the key support level for the Nifty is placed at 15,841, followed by 15,743. If the index moves up, the key resistance levels to watch out for are 16,054 and 16,168.
Stay tuned to Moneycontrol to find out what happens in the currency and equity markets today. We have collated a list of important headlines across news platforms which could impact Indian as well as international markets:
The S&P 500 pared early losses to close modestly lower on Thursday after investors digested disappointing quarterly results from two large US banks and hotter-than-expected inflation data.
Initially, all three major US stock indexes sold off sharply in the wake of second-quarter earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Morgan Stanley. Both reported slumping profits and warned of an impending economic slowdown.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.62 points, or 0.46 percent, to 30,630.17; the S&P 500 lost 11.4 points, or 0.30 percent, at 3,790.38; and the Nasdaq Composite added 3.60 points, or 0.03 percent, at 11,251.19.
Chinese markets slipped as Asia stocks fell Friday ahead of China data including GDP and retail sales. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.44 percent. South Korea’s Kospi gave up early gains to decline 0.64 percent and the Kosdaq lost 0.94 percent.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.13 percent higher, while the Topix index shed 0.33 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 0.77 percent.
Trends in the SGX Nifty indicate a flat opening for the broader index in India on Friday with a gain of 19 points. The Nifty futures were trading at around 15,952 levels on the Singaporean exchange.
India Bonds will suffer the most in Asia in a US recession scenario.
US recession risks are reverberating across the emerging Asian debt complex, and nowhere is this more apparent than in Indian sovereign bonds.
Rupee debt has proven to be the most sensitive to an inversion of the US curve in the past, and this time is unlikely to be different, according to a Bloomberg study which analyzed four episodes dating back to 2005. In each instance, India’s benchmark yields climbed an average of 11 basis points in the 10 days before longer-term US rates fell below those on shorter-dated maturities.
The threat of a US downturn is the latest risk confronting Indian bonds after a weakening rupee and accelerating inflation propelled benchmark yields to the highest in over two years in June. A slowdown in the world’s biggest economy may exacerbate the pressure from outflows after global funds sold the notes for five months through June.
India's merchandise trade deficit rose to a record $26.1 billion in June 2022, 172 percent higher than in June 2021, as a continuing global commodity supercycle kept the prices of key energy and metal imports high. The latest figures are higher than the government's initial estimates of $25.6 billion.
Data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on July 14 showed that while exports in June rose by 23.5 percent to $40.13 billion, imports shot up by 57.5 percent to $66.31 billion. The resultant $26.1 billion trade deficit—the difference between total exports and imports—is expected to become a new headache for the Commerce Department.
The monthly trade deficit has been rising for the past few months. It had risen from $20.4 billion in April to $23.3 billion in May.
China's GDP data will show a sharp slowdown in Q2 and a tepid recovery in June.
China is expected to report a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter after widespread COVID lockdowns jolted factories and consumers, although activity in June may have perked up.
A Reuters poll showed the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1 percent in April-June from a year earlier, a Reuters poll showed, slowing from the first-quarter's 4.8 percent pace.
The expected growth would be the weakest since a steep 6.9% slump in the first quarter of 2020, when an outbreak of COVID-19 in the central city of Wuhan, first detected in late 2019, turned into a full blown epidemic.
Fed hawks say they want 75 basis point rate hike in July
Two of the Federal Reserve's most hawkish policymakers on Thursday said they favored another 75-basis-point interest rate increase at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting this month, not the bigger rate hike traders had raced to price in after a report Wednesday showed inflation was accelerating.
The remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard hit home, with markets swiftly reversing course to reflect the pair's preference, though still assigning about a 45% chance of a full percentage-point rate hike.
Results on July 15 and July 16
Jindal Steel & Power, Federal Bank, Aditya Birla Money, Deep Diamond India, Den Networks, Integrated Capital Services, Just Dial, Kesoram Industries, Lloyds Metals and Energy, L&T Technology Services, Oberoi Realty, and Opto Circuits (India) will be in focus ahead of quarterly earnings on July 15.
HDFC Bank, Bharat Electronics, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company, Netlink Solutions, Pil Italica Lifestyle, and Welcure Drugs & Pharmaceuticals will be in focus ahead of quarterly earnings on July 16.
FII and DII data
On July 14, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 309.06 crore, whereas domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 556.40 crore on July 14, as per provisional data available on the NSE.
Stocks under F & O ban on NSE
One stock-Delta Corp-remained under the NSE F & O ban list for July 15 as well. Securities in the ban period under the F & O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.