Trends in the SGX Nifty point to a gap-up start with a gain of 100 points for the larger index in India.

  • July 4, 2022, 12:42 p.m.

The market is expected to open in the green as trends in the SGX Nifty indicate a gap-up opening for the broader index in India with a gain of 100 points.

The BSE Sensex fell 111 points to 52,908, while the Nifty50 declined 28 points to 15,752 and formed a bullish candle that resembled a Hammer pattern on the daily charts. On the weekly scale, it formed a bearish candlestick, as the closing was lower than the opening level though the index gained a third of a percent.

As per the pivot charts, the key support level for the Nifty is placed at 15,577, followed by 15,403. If the index moves up, the key resistance levels to watch out for are 15,860 and 15,969.

Stay tuned to Moneycontrol to find out what happens in the currency and equity markets today. We have collated a list of important headlines across news platforms that could impact Indian as well as international markets.

US markets

Wall Street bounced back to a sharply higher close in light trading on Friday as investors embarked on the second half of the year ahead of the long holiday weekend. All three major US stock indices reversed early losses to end well into positive territory after the stock market's worst first half in decades.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 321.83 points, or 1.05 percent, to 31,097.26, the S&P 500 gained 39.95 points, or 1.06 percent, to 3,825.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added 99.11 points, or 0.90 percent, to 11,127.85.

Asian Markets

Asian share markets started cautiously on Monday as a run of soft US data suggested downside risks for this week's June payrolls report, while the hubbub over possible recession was still driving a relief rally in government bonds.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.3 percent, while Japan's Nikkei added 0.9 percent.

SGX Nifty

Trends on the SGX Nifty indicate a gap-up opening for the broader index in India with a gain of 100 points. The Nifty futures were trading at around 15,844 levels on the Singaporean exchange.

RBI estimates Rs 2.12 lakh crore borrowing by states through bonds in July-September.

The Indian states are expected to borrow Rs 2.12 lakh crore via bonds in July-September, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on July 1. The states are scheduled to raise Rs 62,640 crore in July, Rs 81,582 crore in August and Rs 67,330 crore in September, the RBI said in a release. State debt auctions typically happen every Tuesday.

July-September's indicative borrowing by states is around 29 percent higher than the actual borrowing of Rs 1.6 lakh crore in the same quarter of the previous financial year and is nearly twice as high as the Rs 1.1 lakh crore raised in April-June.

US heading towards'stagflationary debt crisis'; market may crash 50%: Nouriel Roubini

The world's major economies, including the United States, are heading towards a "stagflationary debt crisis", which may lead to the equity market crashing by around 50 percent, warned economist Nouriel Roubini, who is known as' Dr Doom 'for his forecast of the 2008 global recession.

The recession into which the US is likely to be plunged is worse than the previous financial crises, as the country's economy is currently showing symptoms akin to the stagflation crisis of the 1970s as well as the crippling recession that was seen in 2008, Roubini argued in his column for the Project Syndicate.

While the US and global equity markets typically slide by around 35 percent in "plain-vanilla recessions", the drop would be more severe in the upcoming financial crisis due to the combined effect of soaring inflation and debt crisis, Roubini claimed.

Banking frauds of over Rs 100 crore declined significantly in FY22.

Frauds in the banking sector involving sums of over Rs 100 crore have declined significantly, with banks reporting cases worth Rs 41,000 crore in 2021-22 compared to Rs 1.05 lakh crore in the previous year. According to official data, the number of fraud cases in private as well as public sector banks dropped to 118 in FY22 from 265 in 2020–21.

As per the data, in the case of public sector banks (PSBs), the total number of fraud cases of over Rs 100 crore declined to 80 from 167 in FY '21, while for private sector lenders, such cases reduced to 38 in FY '22 from 98 earlier, as per the data. In terms of cumulative amount, it has come down to Rs 28,000 crore from Rs 65,900 crore in FY '21 for PSBs. For private sector banks, the reduction is from Rs 39,900 crore to Rs 13,000 crore in FY '22.

In a bid to check fraud, the RBI has been taking several steps, including improving the efficacy of the Early Warning System (EWS) framework, strengthening fraud governance and response systems, augmenting data analysis for monitoring of transactions, and introducing a dedicated Market Intelligence (MI) Unit for fraud.

US factory activity slows to a two-year low as clouds gather over the US economy.

US manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in June, with a measure of new orders contracting for the first time in two years, signs that the economy was cooling amid aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Friday also showed a gauge of factory employment contracting for a second straight month, though an "overwhelming majority" of companies indicated they were hiring.

The ISM survey's index of national factory activity dropped to 53.0 last month, the lowest reading since June 2020, when the sector was rebounding from a COVID-19 slump. That followed a reading of 56.1 in May. The index would need to decline to 43.1 to signal a recession.

Deutsche Bank: Bitcoin may rally 30%, scale $28,000 by year-end:

Even as the world’s largest digital currency by market capitalisation continues to stay above the $19,000 mark amid a broader market slump, Bitcoin (BTC) could go as high as $28,000 by the end of the year, according to Deutsche Bank. BTC is currently trading flat at $19,250 after making a low of $18,729 on Friday morning, a far cry from the high of $48,234 seen in March this year.

An analysis by Deutsche Bank strategists Marion Laboure and Galina Pozdnyakova suggests that BTC could rally around 30 percent from its current levels. However, it is still over halfway to its all-time high.

Two-wheeler sales witnessed moderate growth in June.

Even as the chip supply constraints started to ease off for automakers, sales in the two-wheeler segment of India's automotive industry remained muted in June, both over the last year and on a sequential basis. However, most of the industry players are anticipating sustained growth over the next few quarters due to the favourable monsoon and improvement in their supply chain.

With sales of 484,867 units of motorcycles and scooters in June 2022, Hero MotoCorp registered a growth of 3.35 percent over the corresponding month of the previous fiscal when it sold 469,160 units. As per the regulatory filing data, Hero MotoCorp's total domestic sales climbed to 463,210 units in June 2022 compared to 4,38,514 units in June last year. However, exports declined to 21,657 units in the month under review from 30,646 units in June 2021.

In terms of segment, sales of motorcycles advanced to 461,421 units in June 2022 against 441,536 units in the same month last year. A total of 23,446 scooters were sold in June 2022 - down from 27,624 units in June last year.

FII and DII data

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold Rs 2,324.74 crore worth of shares, whereas domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, to the tune of Rs 1,310.71 crore worth of shares on July 1, as per provisional data available on the NSE.

Author : Rajdhani Delhi Representative

Rajdhani delhi representative

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